Latest CDC Data Confirms Low Death Rate for People of All Ages and Health Conditions

Posted on May 26, 2020

The CDC recently released the following table of information to the public via its website: In Scenario 5, the CDC’s best estimate, the overall COVID-19 mortality rate for symptomatic cases is .4%, much lower than the numbers that have been thrown about in the media for months. The CDC doesn’t go into detail about how […]


Fine-tuning Estimated Recoveries and Estimated Active Case Count

Posted on May 17, 2020

Back on April 15, I wrote about a statistical discrepancy I noticed, namely that the number of recoveries being reported by state agencies was much lower than we would expect, given what we know about average incubation period and average time from first symptoms to death for COVID-19. We know from various studies that the […]


About that CDC COVID-19 Death Total Discrepancy

Posted on May 4, 2020

Over the weekend I’ve received emails from friends who have shared articles and tweets which are sounding the alarm over the very large discrepancy in CDC-reported deaths when compared with the total death numbers reported on this and other sites. As of this morning, we’re reporting 67,567 deaths from COVID-19, while the CDC is showing […]


Friday Notes: CDC data update, increased COVID-19 testing, and a plea for a non-partisan decision-making

Posted on May 1, 2020

I’ve been tracking the CDC’s demographic breakdowns for cases and deaths for 3 weeks now. This week turned in largely the same results as the prior 2 weeks. Here’s how things look as of 4/30: Age Deaths (Healthy Individuals) Survivability Rate (Healthy Individuals) 0-44 Years 158 99.95% 45–64 years 1205 99.76% 65–74 years 1460 99.06% […]


Friday Notes: CDC data update, herd immunity, and surge in COVID-19 testing

Posted on April 24, 2020

A week ago I wrote a brief analysis of CDC and NY data that confirmed a low risk of death for healthy people, especially under the age of 65, using known case and death statistics. I’ve updated the data using this week’s NY and CDC data. Click on the link above for a full explanation. […]


Fact-checking Fear-based COVID-19 Drudge Report Headlines (4/22)

Posted on April 22, 2020

No doubt we’ve all seen videos on Youtube or Facebook of nurses and doctors pleading with people to take things seriously and follow social distancing guidelines. We’ve probably all read articles outlining the frightening case count and death count projections that research groups around the U.S. have released, and then revised as the results started […]


New CDC, NY Data Confirm Low COVID-19 Risk for Healthy Individuals

Posted on April 18, 2020

*Update: Numbers current as of 4/30* Recently, the CDC added demographic data for both case and death totals in the US. Accounting for nearly 450,000 cases and 11,000 deaths, here’s how the numbers break down by age group: Age % of Total Cases % of Total Deaths 0-44 Years 50% 3% 45–64 years 47% 18% […]


Where are the Recoveries?

Posted on April 15, 2020

For the next few weeks, the number of active cases will be an important number to watch. We’re going to start to see the active case graph peak and then descend as more deaths and more recoveries get reported by state and local health authorities. Many, many hours have been spent talking about the number […]