The awesome power of truth in a post-totalitarian society

Posted on November 19, 2020

The following extracts are taken from Václav Havel’s 1978 essay “Power and the Powerless”. In the essay, Havel describes a new form of totalitarianism which he calls post-totalitarianism. Unlikely classic totalitarian regimes, constrained by time, and assigned to the control of a single tyrannical individual, post-totalitarianism is characterized by a vast bureaucracy that is at […]

Estimating Herd Immunity Status for Each State

Posted on August 1, 2020

A Brief Overview of Herd Immunity The Mayo Clinic website gives the following explanation of herd immunity: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just […]

Cases, cases, cases! The problem of focusing on case counts to the detriment of more important metrics.

Posted on July 26, 2020

From the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China, to the eventual pandemic around the globe, media and politicians have obsessed over various single factor analyses to the detriment of Americans’ health and well-being. A prime example of this is the incessant focus on case counts, which may quite possibly be the most meaningless […]

Science and Common Sense in the Debate about Masks

Posted on July 19, 2020

Masks are currently the hot button coronavirus topic. Should people be forced to wear them? Who should wear them? Do they offer protection? How much protection? The fact of the matter is, no American wants to die from anything–let alone coronavirus. If you give an American the honest truth about the risks of the disease […]

Latest CDC Data Confirms Low Death Rate for People of All Ages and Health Conditions

Posted on May 26, 2020

The CDC recently released the following table of information to the public via its website: In Scenario 5, the CDC’s best estimate, the overall COVID-19 mortality rate for symptomatic cases is .4%, much lower than the numbers that have been thrown about in the media for months. The CDC doesn’t go into detail about how […]

Fine-tuning Estimated Recoveries and Estimated Active Case Count

Posted on May 17, 2020

Back on April 15, I wrote about a statistical discrepancy I noticed, namely that the number of recoveries being reported by state agencies was much lower than we would expect, given what we know about average incubation period and average time from first symptoms to death for COVID-19. We know from various studies that the […]

About that CDC COVID-19 Death Total Discrepancy

Posted on May 4, 2020

Over the weekend I’ve received emails from friends who have shared articles and tweets which are sounding the alarm over the very large discrepancy in CDC-reported deaths when compared with the total death numbers reported on this and other sites. As of this morning, we’re reporting 67,567 deaths from COVID-19, while the CDC is showing […]

Friday Notes: CDC data update, increased COVID-19 testing, and a plea for a non-partisan decision-making

Posted on May 1, 2020

I’ve been tracking the CDC’s demographic breakdowns for cases and deaths for 3 weeks now. This week turned in largely the same results as the prior 2 weeks. Here’s how things look as of 4/30: Age Deaths (Healthy Individuals) Survivability Rate (Healthy Individuals) 0-44 Years 158 99.95% 45–64 years 1205 99.76% 65–74 years 1460 99.06% […]

Friday Notes: CDC data update, herd immunity, and surge in COVID-19 testing

Posted on April 24, 2020

A week ago I wrote a brief analysis of CDC and NY data that confirmed a low risk of death for healthy people, especially under the age of 65, using known case and death statistics. I’ve updated the data using this week’s NY and CDC data. Click on the link above for a full explanation. […]

Fact-checking Fear-based COVID-19 Drudge Report Headlines (4/22)

Posted on April 22, 2020

No doubt we’ve all seen videos on Youtube or Facebook of nurses and doctors pleading with people to take things seriously and follow social distancing guidelines. We’ve probably all read articles outlining the frightening case count and death count projections that research groups around the U.S. have released, and then revised as the results started […]